When will AI systems surpass human performance? I don’t know, do you? No you don’t. Let’s see what 352 top AI researchers think.
[CORRECTION: I mistakenly stated that the survey was before AlphaGo beat Lee Sedol. The 12 year prediction was for AI to outperform humans *after having only played as many games as a human plays in their lifetime*]
The paper: https://arxiv.org/pdf/1705.08807.pdf
The blogpost which has lots of nice data visualisations: https://aiimpacts.org/2016-expert-survey-on-progress-in-ai/
The Instrumental Convergence video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZeecOKBus3Q
The Negative Side Effects video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lqJUIqZNzP8
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