Half Ideas – Startups and Entrepreneurship
Reactions to GPT3 broke down into two categories: This is so cool and OMG – Will AI replace programmers? Is my job safe? I’ve got some new GPT3 demos and I’ll explain some of the different types of AI, machine learning, and why you don’t have to worry about your job, at least not YET! We do however need to worry about GPT3 and AI having bias and being racist, sexist, and more.
I’ve posted the tweets and videos referenced in the video here:
https://gregraiz.com/?p=650
To understand why programmer jobs aren’t in jeopardy you need to understand the basics of AI. There are four categories to consider:
1. Reactive machines – Big Blue / Chess-playing – they look at the environment and react.
2. Machines with memory – These are AI’s that can remember things over time and learn from their environment. Self-driving cars are an example of this.
3. Theory of mind – This is when a machine can think and understand that others can think. It can put itself in the shoes of someone else and serve basic needs and functions in a general way. This is called Artificial General Intelligence
4. Self-aware – This is when a machine can have the abilities of the previous categories and can also understand it’s own existence. This is in the realm of science fiction and both categories #3 & 4 are theoretical areas of research and we’re not close to these yet.
GPT3 is mostly #1. While it has a lot of data it’s not designed to remember things from session to session. The model is pre-trained, that’s the PT in GPT and you can think of it as the world’s most sophisticated auto-complete. GPT is able to complete questions, code, HTML files, and more. Because it’s trained on so much data the auto-complete has context but not memory. It’s incredibly good but it’s not perfect and it isn’t tested as valid.
Most of the time the output of GPT3 will be a starting point, not the final product. In the examples above the HTML, SQL, CSS, and text that is produced is most likely to be a starting point but its quality and fidelity, while impressive is unlikely to be a final result.
As I said GPT3 is an amazing piece of technology and I can understand why people may worry about their job. Technology can cause this concern and it’s been going on since Aristotle and Ancient Greeks. Farmers have worried about tractors. Scribes worried about the printing press and mathematicians and typists worried about computers. There’s a term for this is Technological unemployment.
While technology can eliminate or shift jobs it also tends to create new jobs and new opportunities. Even if GPT3 is really good, the world will still need engineers, designers, poets, and creators, perhaps more than ever.