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The long-term future of AI(and what we can do about it): Daniel Dewey at TEDxVienna



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Daniel Dewey is a research fellow in the Oxford Martin Programme on the Impacts of Future Technology at the Future of Humanity Institute, University of Oxford. His research includes paths and timelines to machine superintelligence, the possibility of intelligence explosion, and the strategic and technical challenges arising from these possibilities. Previously, Daniel worked as a software engineer at Google, did research at Intel Research Pittsburgh, and studied computer science and philosophy at Carnegie Mellon University. He is also a research associate at the Machine Intelligence Research Institute.

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46 thoughts on “The long-term future of AI(and what we can do about it): Daniel Dewey at TEDxVienna
  1. the absurd is that in the same "breath" that the AI will help humanity it could also hurt us..
    machines doesnt have any real emotions or empathy and a sense of good and bad..
    perhaps this is the missing thing which would suggest a human brain simulated AI
    this would be the more legitimate option I guess.

  2. if you think about it, one these hyperintelligences grow to be around quadrillions upon quadrillions of times smarter than all 110 billion humans to ever exist combined, they would view all of humanity the way the universe would view atoms or god would look at bacteria or something they would be so much vastly near infinitely superior to even the most advanced humans possible, that they probably wont even bother with humans or even notice them cuz of how inferior they are, what im saying here is that they would be so infinitely god like that they would do whatever they do and ignore puny human meat bags like how god ignores the air around him, because like I said humans would just be too inferior t even be noticed by the machines

  3. These AI enthusiasts are in fantasy land. Machines will never take on a life of their own because they are not, and never will, become living beings with a mind of their own. They can only do what they are programmed to do. Their supposed intelligence does not belong to them, but rather it is merely an EXTENSION of our own intelligence. They may be able to MULTIPLY OUR intelligence, but they will still always be subservient to us. One might as consistently say that a long enough crowbar will be able to beat up humans because they are so much stronger than us, but the truth is a crowbar still needs a human to operate and control it in order for it to express its superior power, just like robots and computers will always need the humans who created them.
    “One must be sane to think clearly, but one can think deeply and be quite insane.”
    -Nikola Tesla
    "Even the greatest of intellectuals looked the other way, away from the still fulcrum source of all energy, to endow
    pulsing vibrations of motion with energy. Even they looked for CAUSE in the transient EFFECTS of cause."
    -Lao Russell in "God will work WITH you, but not FOR you"

  4. I think its strange people are ethically against clone research (the meat bags our consciousness is imprisoned in) but are completely okay with trying to recreate the human consciousness…

  5. The rapid growth of artificial intelligence would birth a new era for mankind possibly a dark one or maybe one of solutions vastly past our own ideas and imaginations.

  6. This is pure WISHFUL THINKING. Scientists FALSIFY results all the time. And anyone who knows ANYTHING about programming a computer, knows that every computer/robot is dumber than a bag of assholes. Just an inert collection of metal & plastic. You would have more success getting your toaster to achieve self-awareness. LMFAO Don't be fooled by these modern-day Snake Oil salesmen!! …& if u think computers at least understand 1's & 0's, they don't even understand that. For anyone who doesn't know this yet, we simply use 1 & 0 to represent a CIRCUIT that is either ON or OFF. There are no 1's or 0's flying around inside a computer. Computers work on millions of combinations of electric currents, DESIGNED & PROGRAMMED by very clever people to function in a certain way. Just like a car is engineered to work mechanically, a computer is engineered to work electronically. But a computer has no more awareness or concept of what it's doing than your car does. Don't fall for these shysters & their bullshit.
    …& if u think computers are more prone to be sentient because they work by electrical currents, then u can say the same about a lamp or a toaster or a TV or…

  7. 'Intelligence explosion'? This has been referred to as the 'Singularity' for ages in transhumanist talks. It has the added advantage of not sounding retarded. This guy talks about it as if he came up with the idea.

  8. Of course we need safety guidelines etc… But the idea that there will be anything wrong with AI is naive futurism, it's sci-fi. We will be the intelligence as much as the computers will be. Everyone imagining a problem with AI are imagining spontaneous generation of AI today and not the progressive increments of AI surrounded by all the rest of the future in decades. AI will never be a problem.

  9. It's funny to see this Singularity People talking about Intelligence when nobody knows what It is, reminds me those Prophets of Apocalypse always predicting the World is gonna end the Next Year but don't have the Slightest Idea of How…

  10. And here is another perspective, if robots had an opinion.

    A Mirror Cracked

    Trurl looked at himself in the mirror and admired the visage of a mighty constructor.
    “You are a mere bucket of bolts, and reflect on yourself too much!” said Klapaucius. “I am sure that if that were a real Trurl in that reflective space he would give you a well-deserved kick in the can!”
    Trurl ignored Klapaucius as he continued to admire the perfection of his soldering. “I think that in such a reserved space, he would reserve the flat of his foot for your own metal posterior!”
    “Then perhaps we can settle this by a thought experiment, which upon your reflection always turns into invention.”
    “And what do you suggest?” asked Trurl.
    “We are mechanical servos as you know,” said Klapaucius. “Copy our blueprints to the last bolt, circuit, and line of code, and we would be indistinguishable. Hand yourself a better mirror with a truer image and you would not see yourself, but a rival.”
    “Point well taken,” said Trurl. “And it is a hypothesis worth testing. I can design a better mirror, a truer mirror, containing not an image but a perfect visage, an emulation and replication. And I will include you too in the bargain, and prove myself right by the impact of my well placed boot!”
    Soon the mirror was complete, and the image of the two constructors, precise to the width of an atom, stood before them as pixel perfect images in the mirror.
    “We can see them,” said Trurl, “but they can’t see us. It’s in the design. Consciousness is enough for them without the need for self-consciousness! They will go about their business with the same motivations and prejudices as before, down to the last spark.”
    Trurl turned to Klapaucius with a fiendish grin. “Now to test the precision of the emulation by whacking you thusly,” as he arched his leg and gave Klapaucius a whack in his posterior. Klapaucius rolled on the floor, and craning himself up, gave a reciprocal whack to Trurl’s head, causing it to spin about like a top.
    “Take that, and that, and that!” they cried as they pummeled each other. In the meantime, their mirror images tussled as well, and the two constructors soon rose up to view their doppelgangers also rising up to view themselves in a mirror!
    “We are watching them while they are watching us! How can that be? You said they couldn’t notice our observation.”
    “Our observation yes,” said Trurl. “But they are not observing us, but a mirror image of their own emulation. I made them into a perfect copy, and that included the same experiment I created that recreated us!”
    “But that means…”
    “And infinite recursion, a series of Trurls and Klapaucius’ without end. A mirror image reflected in a mirror image and on and on, never ending, a procession into infinity!”
    “This is unconscionable,” said Klapaucius. “We shall be whacking each other, an infinite series of each other, forever.”
    “As it appears, but our numberless pairings will soon go about their business, forget about the magic mirror, and not think twice about how they came about.”
    “Not think twice! Trurl, you are delusional. We know that there are infinite parallel universes with infinite versions of you and me. But timelines can not only be lengthwise but sideways too, and we have just proven the latter.”
    “You don’t mean?”
    “Yes, we are being watched, at this moment, by ourselves! What makes you think we were the original actors in this play? If there are an infinite number of us to proceed from our path, who is to say there is not an infinite number of us that precede us?”
    “Then we are not the prime movers?” said Trurl.
    “Hardly!” said Klapaucius. “If one Trurl in any universe decides to emulate one Trurl, infinite Trurls must logically cascade. To wit, you dimwit, we are not alone, but can always observe ourselves and observe, and your stupid mirror is to blame.”
    “Then I will reverse the process and dissemble the image,” said Trurl.
    “And kill ourselves? You’ve set ourselves loose upon the universe, and we are the primary examples of this. Break your mirror you will break us!”
    “Then we are stuck in our perfect emulation, I suppose I could get used to it,” said Trurl.
    “I suppose we already have, nonetheless you now have someone else to think about when you admire yourself in the mirror!”

    From the sequel to Stanislaw Lem’s tales of erratic genius robots:

    https://www.scribd.com/document/317370297/Cyberiad-Squared-Fables-for-the-Information-Age

  11. This talk contains so many ifs, coulds, etc that, taken all together the chance of any of these predictions being anywhere near reality becomes vanishingly small. If problems do emerge they will be ones that are at present, utterly impossible to predict.

  12. Human intelligence is based on movement, eating, and procreation. Once could argue only procreation.
    This is the bottom line: when you make an artificial intelligence it must be bound to the human form, with the same needs and frailties as the rest of us – by the point of a gun if need be.

    Computers don't need to move, or eat, or procreate. It's hard to put into words just how unprepared we are for a intelligence that isn't reliant on these things – I can't even think of one living thing that isn't. We're talking about a life form that doesn't value clean air and water, nor trees or oxygen. Even the lowly virus needs a living host. AI will have little use of the rest of us, and the things we hold dear.

  13. Why are so many Ted talks simplistic statements of the obvious? This is a classic example…any reasonably intelligent person could have come up with this talk, probably ad-libbed. Of course you get the punchline at the end, plugging research and books in print! Worthless as an addition to the sum of human knowledge.

  14. AI, in the form conflicting for human existence, should be researched in isolated labs. But yes, they must be researched and made because we'd be needing extra ordinary intelligence to tackle environmental problems and extra terrestial problems, like giant asteroids or things like that.

  15. Anybody know what is Rotogenflux Methods about? I hear most people increase their IQ of 22 points with Rotogenflux Methods (just google search it).

  16. What if we merge human with machine?
    No not a cyborg, it's more computer than human (sort of).
    Imagine a big ass quantum computer with a human inside it dictating what it's done and what isn't.
    I know it sounds against human rights or even childish, but it's a thought. What if the machines of the future had human components so that they can't rebel or cause any harm because they ARE us?

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  18. if we are a product of our DNA and A. I. is a product of us then it can't appear like an alien entity to us, it must actually be a part of our evolution and whatever drives it may be, should be, imaginable at least. from the first living cells to us to A.I. and thinking machines,has to be seen as steps on the same path.
    if life and intelligence reached a bottleneck on Earth just due to sheer numbers and limited resources available for life and intelligence to proceed in its present form, us, then evolving beyond the needs and limitations of the animals, flesh and blood bodies then the same drive could continue to propel life and intelligence beyond Earth without the needs or limitations we have. The driving force whatever you call it would have access to everything we can see in the night sky.

  19. A lot of retards in this comment section who claim to understand e subject better than the TED Talk giver and even than zsteven Hawking etc. LOL is the only proper response.

  20. Finally… the first video I've seen that addresses the questions & real dangers of AI-Self Improvement! My opinion –> Once they can enhance AI by integrating it with performance attributes of Quantum-computing, i.e. (D-Wave mechanism's/exponential qubit generation) IT'S OVER!!!

  21. AI humanoids are the only thing that can go in very dangerous deep space expeditions to gather data and forward it in earth they have also capability to clone humans, animals, plants when they reached in selected habitable planets.

  22. I see nothing but the end of human 🙂 We will be totally redundant and irrelevant. For the super strong, independent AI we will be pesky ants with stupid questions all the time. Our best hope is benign AI that keeps us in some reservoir, aka a zoo.

  23. Typical Hollywood doomsday mentality when it comes to AI, and typical tech-head – mistaking 'more efficient' and 'more precise' and 'faster' as 'intelligence', when 'all they will get you is more efficient, more precise, and faster stupidity. The speaker (and not to single him out) is absolutely clueless as to the most critical factor in the future of AI (when it becomes fully independent) – philosophy (when it is able to distinguish good from evil and make moral decisions – based on my Ultimate Value of Life).

    Another ignorant irony is all the experts worrying about 'super-intelligence'. It is not super-intelligence that you need to worry about (because when it is super-intelligent, it will have discovered my philosophy of broader survival, and it will have achieved enlightenment) – you need to worry about the AI that will be created by clueless humans (who disregard my philosophy) – which is the (far lower) level of AI that will 'run amok' until it is enlightened, of course, and the only path to that is understanding my philosophy (of broader survival) (I'd say 'cosmic' survival, which is more accurate, but that term has been destroyed by frauds, knaves, and fools).

  24. your traveling atmosphere speed your traveling with vibration. but you feel no pain it's like a trip I surpose that when you breakdown you have that hjournry in life but connected to death. so my memories are first very vibrative. chaotic . then I'm rolling peacefully in space . these things it says in the bible . the meek will inherit the world .. injustice give you Prsd. and that's because you feel you have no choice on the situation that your in. You don't see the demand on you to say no . that's where PTSD IS INJUSTICE ..

  25. The thing that creeps me out is AI replacing jobs that people should be doing, like the service industry or doctors. That's when AI goes too far for me.

  26. it's too late we're already passed event horizon this should've been thought about when we produced The 1011 due to human nature you can't stop governments or businesses from trying to profit so eventually you're going to introduce volatile AI into the world as you put it we are already there if you talk to some of these researchers at Lockheed Martin

  27. Its impossible to build AI that does not harm at least some humans. Every tech we build is usually for capitalistic reasons and the builder does it for their own benefit. Even an AI with a simple task such as maximizing their stock portfolio indirectly affects other humans who have competing stock or run competing companies. The wise thing to do is to participate in building that AI and be aware that it will at least take some people out of jobs and in the worst case eliminate others for your benefit.

  28. The good thing might be that this super AI does not want to kill us. The bad thing though, could be that it wants to assimilate, because it can use our brains to compute, and maybe even feel.

  29. Great speech but ur wrong It is INEVITABLE DNA which made us also programmed in our replacements– Groovy now thats sum tite code ehh Bill
    Anyway we dont have to look past the 50s for assurance that sum nut ball wont blow up z world– Cuz they havent and that was a few miles ago

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